A new NBER working paper from researchers at the Federal Reserve, Northwestern's Kellogg School and Johns Hopkins finds that Kalshi -- the largest federally regulated prediction market in the U.S., overseen by the CFTC -- produces macroeconomic forecasts that match or beat those of professional forecasters and traditional financial instruments like fed funds futures.

The study compared Kalshi-implied forecasts for the federal funds rate, CPI inflation and unemployment against the New York Fed's Survey of Market Expectations and Bloomberg consensus. Kalshi's modal forecast correctly predicted the federal funds rate on the day before every FOMC meeting since 2022, something neither the survey nor fed funds futures achieved. For headline CPI, Kalshi's median and mode produced a statistically significant improvement over Bloomberg consensus.

Kalshi also fills a gap no other financial market covers: real-time probability distributions for GDP growth, core CPI, unemployment, and payrolls. The paper documented how these distributions shift in response to macro news -- positive CPI surprises moved the mean of the fed funds rate distribution four times more than negative ones. Trading volumes on the platform have grown to nearly 100 million contracts for a single FOMC meeting, supported by liquidity from Susquehanna, Citadel, and Two Sigma.

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

Report prepared by Munich Security Conference warns of ‘suicide of a superpower’ under Trump – key US politics stories from Monday 9 February at a glance

Europe has come to the painful realisation that it needs to be more assertive and more militarily independent from an authoritarian US administration that no longer shares a commitment to liberal democratic norms and values, a report prepared by the Munich Security Conference asserts.

Polling commissioned for the report shows Europeans are increasingly willing to operate without US leadership and say it is no longer necessary.

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Officials say rescuers searching for lone survivor after latest attack on what Pentagon says are suspected drug smugglers

The US military’s Southern Command, which oversee operations in Latin America and the Caribbean, announced that it carried out another deadly strike on Monday, killing two suspected drug smugglers in the eastern Pacific.

The statement said that the latest in what legal experts have called a series of extrajudicial killings by the Pentagon was carried out “at the direction of” the Florida-based combat unit’s new commander, Gen Francis L Donovan, who was sworn in at a Pentagon ceremony last Thursday. Donovan takes over after a US navy admiral, Alvin Holsey, chose to retire over reported disagreements over the boat-strike policy.

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President says Gordie Howe Bridge will open only when US is ‘fully compensated’ – and makes bizarre hockey claim

As Democrats prepare to force a vote in the US House this week on Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada, the president posted a lengthy diatribe on his social media platform in which he threatened to block a bridge connecting the US and Canada and made a bizarre false claim that increased trade between Canada and China would include a ban on Canadians playing ice hockey.

Trump began his latest screed against the US’s second-largest trading partner by claiming that “everyone knows, the Country of Canada has treated the United States very unfairly for decades”.

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Ukraine says deal paves way for ‘large-scale joint projects’ while separately Kyiv opens exports of its locally made weaponry. What we know on day 1,448

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Christian charity executive, Lauren Mastrosa, pen name Tori Woods, found to have written novel that ‘sexually objectifies children’

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A Christian charity executive has been found guilty of child abuse after she wrote a book describing an adult roleplaying as a toddler.

Lauren Ashley Mastrosa, 34, wrote Daddy’s Little Toy under the pen name Tori Woods.

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Police arrest and use pepper spray on people demonstrating against the visit of Israeli president Isaac Herzog, who is in Australia until 12 February in response to the Bondi beach terrorist attack in December. The violent and chaotic scenes in Sydney came after thousands gathered lawfully near the Town Hall on Monday evening, before attempting to march to state parliament in defiance of a NSW law that effectively bans protesters from marching in designated areas

• Chris Minns defends police in ‘impossible situation’ after accusations of violence against protesters in Sydney

• Video: Scores of police charge Sydney protesters attempting to march against Isaac Herzog visit

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A selected series of works from 2025, united by the theme of the Endless Forest. The forest is inhabited by strange animals and creatures and explores the idea of a fragile balance between nature, myth, and the inner world.

Thomas Hawk posted a photo:

Thomas Hawk posted a photo:

Thomas Hawk posted a photo:

Thomas Hawk posted a photo:

Thomas Hawk posted a photo:

ChatGPT starts showing marketing messages in the US

OpenAI said on Monday it has begun testing ads in ChatGPT, one day after being lampooned for its chatbot ad plans in rival Anthropic's Super Bowl commercial.…

iain.davidson100 has added a photo to the pool:

iain.davidson100 has added a photo to the pool:

iain.davidson100 has added a photo to the pool: