Pluralistic: Daily links from Cory Doctorow

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Pluralistic: Textured (18 Sep 2026)


Today's links



A series of high-magnification views of a seemingly smooth human heart valve, revealing the rough texture under extreme close-up.

Textured (permalink)

I'm going to come right out and say it: statistical extrapolation is fine. One of the most useful ways to understand the present and anticipate the future is to measure the things that happened in the past, find the correlations among them, and extrapolate likely future outcomes from those correlations.

There is nothing wrong with this method. It is a productive and reliable way to uncover the causal relationships between natural phenomena, and to find ways to influence the world. If you discover that A reliably causes B, you can do A whenever you want B to happen.

However, the fact that this method works for some things does not mean that it works for all things. Naive, "theory-free" statistical extrapolation (the method that LLMs rely on) has hard limits. LLMs are very good at finding areas of statistical regularity and producing new material that matches this statistical picture: you can use an LLM to produce strings of words that are statistically indistinguishable from sentences and strings of pixels that are statistically indistinguishable from images.

The single most exciting and interesting thing about LLMs is how well this works. Call an LLM "a word-guessing program" and AI boosters will accuse you of reductionism. But the LLM is just guessing words, and the remarkable and amazing thing about this fact is the sheer plausibility of the sentences this method produces.

Before the rise of LLMs, nearly everyone overestimated the statistical irregularity of routine sentences. Our intuition insists that the world is textured, but it turns out that there's far more smoothness in the distribution of natural phenomena, including the actions that we take of our own free will. The same goes for image generation, music generation, and other output from "generative AI" programs.

When I call an LLM a word-guessing program, that's not a dismissal. It's an acknowledgment of the degree to which the tactic of guessing words has exceeded all expectations in the production of sensible-seeming, conversational-seeming sentences and paragraphs. It's all right to be surprised by how similar the output from a conscious being and a word-guessing program can be. It's surprising!

Since the 1950s, researchers have applied the "AI" label to an incoherent grab-bag of technologies that share one characteristic: each one is designed to perform tasks that are considered to be the province of conscious minds. Each one of these "AI" technologies has failed in important ways, but the one way in which every single one of them has succeeded is in refining our own understanding of which things are truly and solely the product of conscious intervention.

The thing we're calling "AI" this year has also succeeded in this way. We've learned that the sentences and other communiques produced by conscious minds have more statistical regularity than previously understood. Again, it's okay to be excited after learning this fact about yourself and your species and its endeavors.

But there are hard limits to the usefulness of these methods, and the fact that AI bosses and boosters can't or won't acknowledge this has led to the current cul-de-sac in which we're spending trillions and emitting gigatons of carbon to produce diminishing returns, even as we fire an army of workers and replace them with defective chatbots that can't do their jobs.

That's because the statistical regularity of the natural world and our activities in it are the backdrop against which the statistical surprises occur, and it's those surprises that make all the difference.

Some weeks ago, I recorded a podcast with a host who was a giant AI booster who claimed that since he could predict what his wife was going to say, and the LLM-powered predictive typing on her phone could predict what she was going to say, that her phone understood her the way he did. This is an obviously repellent idea and you have to feel for this guy's poor wife.

And also: the fact that you can use a statistical lookup table to predict what words someone is going to say doesn't mean you understand them, a fact that you will learn the minute that person says something surprising, like "I want a divorce."

If your "understanding" of your partner is entirely grounded in a statistical record of their utterances and deeds, such that when they do A, you anticipate that B will come next, you will have no ability to cope with a surprise like "I want a divorce." To handle an "I want a divorce" event, you need to actually have a theory about your partner, about how they feel and why, and the factors that might cause that to change.

Surprises are everything. A surprise is the seam of gold in the wall of quartz; it's the friend who confesses they've fallen in love with you; it's the moment when you and the party and the GM all come up with an amazing way to kill the dragon and then roll a natural 20. Surprise is the difference between Pi and 3.11111111111111111111111111111… Dylan going electric is a surprise. A surprise is Miles Davis choosing not to play a note in a phrase. A surprise is Picasso's cubism and Kahlo's mustache.

It's a mistake to interpret the statistical regularity of your life with your spouse as meaning that they're indistinguishable from the output of an LLM. The LLM's statistical picture is always incomplete: it sands off, rounds down or truncates the final couple decimal places, and those smoothings make all the difference, the way the pinch of salt makes all the difference to the chocolate.

Lots of things seem smooth to the naked eye: glass, stainless steel, ice, polished wood. Put those "smooth" materials under a high-magnification microscope and you discover a whole world of tiny irregularities, a texture to reality. Most of the time, you can treat these things as "smooth," but that roughness matters: it's the fracture line the glass cracks on, the place where the ice starts to melt, the grain where the wood starts to warp. The danger of forgetting that your "smooth" thing only seems smooth is that you'll only know how to make it work, and will be totally at sea when it fails.

You can scan the night sky with a radio telescope night after night and only find things that fit with our existing theories of the universe. But you keep scanning, because somewhere out there is a surprise that will open up a deep mystery:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wow!_signal

With LLMs, we have invented a machine that uncovers the statistical regularities in our seemingly irregular world, and we have learned that the roughness is rarer than our intuition led us to believe. This machine will also produce statistically regular, smooth output that has the seeming of understanding and consciousness. But – by definition – it can't contain any of our future surprises, because it's just trained on the things we already know, and if we knew about something, it wouldn't be a surprise anymore.

(Image: Zhaoxing Wang, Kunpeng Wang & Yan Xu, CC BY 4.0, modified)


Hey look at this (permalink)



A shelf of leatherbound history books with a gilt-stamped series title, 'The World's Famous Events.'

Object permanence (permalink)

#25yrsago RIP Mr Dressup https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/mr-dressup-ernie-coombs-dies-after-stroke-1.294923

#20yrsago Diebold voting machines opened with hotel minibar key https://blog.citp.princeton.edu/2006/09/18/hotel-minibar-keys-open-diebold-voting-machines/

#15yrsago Russian oligarch sucker-punches rival billionaire on talk show https://www.theguardian.com/media/2011/sep/18/alexander-lebedev-russian-tv-punchup

#15yrsago HOWTO track down a con-artist https://web.archive.org/web/20110923143613/http://www.popehat.com/2011/09/10/anatomy-of-a-scam-investigation-chapter-one/

#10yrsago International Criminal Court in the Hague will now try CEOs https://web.archive.org/web/20160919000813/http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/CEOs-Can-Now-Be-Prosecuted-Like-War-Criminals-at-the-Hague-20160916-0013.html

#10yrsago Italy on the verge of the stupidest censorship law in European history https://media.boingboing.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/transcription.pdf


Upcoming appearances (permalink)

A photo of me onstage, giving a speech, pounding the podium.



A screenshot of me at my desk, doing a livecast.

Recent appearances (permalink)



A grid of my books with Will Stahle covers..

Latest books (permalink)



A cardboard book box with the Macmillan logo.

Upcoming books (permalink)

  • "The Post-American Internet," a geopolitical sequel of sorts to Enshittification, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2027

  • "Unauthorized Bread": a middle-grades graphic novel adapted from my novella about refugees, toasters and DRM, FirstSecond, April 20, 2027

  • "Enshittification, Why Everything Suddenly Got Worse and What to Do About It" (the graphic novel), Firstsecond, 2027

  • "The Memex Method," Farrar, Straus, Giroux, 2027



Colophon (permalink)

Today's top sources:

Currently writing:

  • “Once Is Enemy Action,” a science fiction novel about the origins of modern technofascism. Today's words: 539 (16530 total).

  • "The Post-American Internet," a sequel to "Enshittification," about the better world the rest of us get to have now that Trump has torched America. Fourth draft completed. Submitted to editor.

  • A Little Brother short story about DIY insulin PLANNING


This work – excluding any serialized fiction – is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. That means you can use it any way you like, including commercially, provided that you attribute it to me, Cory Doctorow, and include a link to pluralistic.net.

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"When life gives you SARS, you make sarsaparilla" -Joey "Accordion Guy" DeVilla

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ISSN: 3066-764X

So Long

Thomas Hawk posted a photo:

So Long

Graffiti Canvas

Thomas Hawk posted a photo:

Graffiti Canvas

Wel.nl

Minder lezen, Meer weten.

SGP-raadslid vindt verloop azc-protest Opheusden onacceptabel

OPHEUSDEN (ANP) - Fractievoorzitter Rob Scheurwater van de lokale SGP vindt het verloop van het protest tegen de mogelijke komst van een asielzoekerscentrum in de gemeente Neder-Betuwe "onacceptabel." Daarbij ontstond in de loop van de avond in Opheusden, waar het gemeentehuis staat, een grimmige sfeer waarbij met zwaar vuurwerk werd gegooid.

"Het was een indrukwekkende avond, waarbij veel mensen op de been waren", aldus Scheurwater tegen het ANP. Binnen werd er rustig gesproken over mogelijke opvang van asielzoekers in de Gelderse gemeente. "Buiten hadden hulpverleners zoals de politie het een stuk zwaarder." Er werd hard geschreeuwd en op de ramen gebonkt. Ook werd de politie bekogeld. Daarom werd besloten de Mobiele Eenheid in te zetten. Later op de avond keerde de rust terug en konden de raadsleden het gemeentehuis veilig verlaten.

De SGP-fractievoorzitter geeft aan de zorgen van mensen "begrijpelijk" te vinden, maar hij wil vooral het gesprek voeren. Er is volgens Scheurwater zorg en aandacht voor de verschillende standpunten.


Dit zijn de slechtste tweedehands auto's – en dit de beste

Op autosites en in tijdlijnen gaat een lijstje rond met de vijf minst betrouwbare occasions, met de Porsche Macan en de BMW X5 bovenaan. Dat lijstje stamt uit een onderzoek van een paar jaar terug. In de nieuwste editie, onder ruim 32.000 autobezitters, staat de Macan juist in de top tien van betrouwbaarste tweedehands auto's. De auto die nú onderaan bungelt, kopen Nederlanders massaal — juist omdat hij zo verstandig lijkt.

De verrassende hekkensluiter

De Nissan Juke op benzine (2019 en jonger) komt uit op een betrouwbaarheidsscore van 55,2 procent. Dat is de laagste score van alle onderzochte modellen, in alle klassen; binnen de kleine SUV's eindigt hij 38e van 38. Bijna een kwart van de eigenaren kreeg te maken met een defect.

Het vaakst ging het mis met de 12-voltaccu en de motor, elk verantwoordelijk voor 12 procent van de gemelde problemen, gevolgd door het brandstofsysteem en de elektronica (elk 6 procent). Pijnlijker is de rekening: slechts 30 procent van de storingen werd gratis verholpen en 60 procent van de gedupeerden betaalde meer dan 1500 pond, omgerekend ruim 1700 euro. Bijna twee derde stond langer dan een week stil.

"Mijn auto is volstrekt onbetrouwbaar geweest. Hij is twee keer stilgevallen en inmiddels denk ik dat hij niet meer te repareren valt."

De tien minst betrouwbare occasions

# Model Bouwjaren Score
1 Nissan Juke (benzine) 2019-heden 55,2%
2 Volkswagen Tiguan 2024-heden 64,2%
3 Kia Sportage 2016-2021 72,9%
4 Mazda CX-60 2022-heden 76,2%
5 Mercedes-Benz C-Klasse 2021-heden 76,3%
6 Volvo S90/V90 2016-heden 76,7%
7 Audi Q7 2015-heden 78,6%
8 Volkswagen ID.4 2021-heden 79,6%
9 Hyundai Ioniq Electric 2016-2022 80,1%
10 Renault Austral 2023-heden 80,4%

De tien betrouwbaarste occasions

# Model Bouwjaren Score
1 Hyundai i10 2020-heden 100%
1 Hyundai Santa Fe 2018-2024 100%
1 Kia EV3 2024-heden 100%
1 Toyota GR Yaris 2016-heden 100%
5 Toyota Aygo X 2021-2025 99,7%
6 Opel Grandland (benzine) 2024-heden 99,6%
7 Toyota RAV4 plug-in hybride 2019-heden 99,2%
8 Mini hatchback 2014-2024 99,1%
9 Kia Niro hybride en plug-in 2022-heden 99,0%
9 Porsche Macan 2021-heden 99,0%

Nieuw of premium is geen garantie

De lijst met afvallers zit vol jonge en duurdere auto's: de nieuwste Tiguan, de huidige C-Klasse, de Audi Q7 en de elektrische ID.4. Andersom kan een merk zowel boven- als onderaan staan: de Hyundai i10 en Santa Fe halen een vlekkeloze 100 procent, terwijl de Ioniq Electric met 80,1 procent bij de tien zwakste hoort. Op merkniveau eindigen Honda (96,6 procent), Mini (96,4) en Suzuki (95,7) bovenaan; MG, Nissan, Fiat, Jaguar en Land Rover sluiten de rij. Nissan zelf komt uit op 89,9 procent, 29e van 30 merken.

"Nieuw kopen is geen garantie voor een betrouwbare auto, en tussen modellen van hetzelfde merk kunnen grote verschillen zitten."

Wat je er als koper mee kunt

  • Kijk per model en bouwjaar, niet per merk. Eén sterke reputatie dekt geen hele showroom.
  • Vraag het onderhouds- en garantiedossier op. De Juke heeft standaard drie jaar fabrieksgarantie, tegen vijf jaar bij Hyundai en Renault en tot zeven jaar bij Kia.
  • Laat een aankoopkeuring doen. Voor een gangbare auto kost dat 150 tot 350 euro, en een rapport met minpunten is meteen een onderhandelingstroef. Weigert de verkoper een keuring, dan weet je genoeg.
  • Let bij jonge occasions extra op de 12-voltaccu en de elektronica. Dat is inmiddels een van de meest gemelde storingsbronnen, ook bij elektrische en hybride modellen.

Meer weten?

  • Autovisie: dit zijn de meest (on)betrouwbare occasions van 2025
  • ANWB: een aankoopkeuring, slim of onzin?
  • ANWB: een betrouwbare tweedehands auto voor elk budget

Chipbedrijven ASML, Besi en ASMI stijgen op voorzichtig Damrak

AMSTERDAM (ANP) - De AEX-index is vrijdag vrijwel vlak begonnen, ondanks het stevige herstel op Wall Street. Ook de olieprijzen gingen verder omlaag, na de stevige opmars aan het begin van de week. Beleggers bleven echter voorzichtig na de renteverhogingen van de grote centrale banken om de inflatie te bestrijden. De chipbedrijven wisten daarentegen verder te herstellen na de eerdere onrust over de veiligheid van kunstmatige intelligentie (AI).

De Amsterdamse hoofdindex noteerde kort na opening van de markt een fractie hoger op 1101,40 punten. De AEX sloot donderdag 0,4 procent hoger, mede dankzij stevige koerswinsten van de chipbedrijven. Besi, ASML en ASMI wonnen nu ruim 2 procent, na winsten van tot 2,5 procent een dag eerder.

De MidKap daalde vrijdagochtend 0,1 procent tot 1096,38 punten. De beurzen in Frankfurt en Parijs verloren 0,4 procent. Londen daalde 0,3 procent, ondanks een onverwachte stijging van de Britse winkelverkopen in augustus.


Politie Ceuta brengt migranten over naar nieuwe opvangplek

CEUTA (ANP) - De Spaanse politie in de exclave Ceuta is begonnen met de overplaatsing van honderden migranten naar een nieuwe opvanglocatie in de haven van Ceuta, schrijven Spaanse media als RTVE en El País. Zij sliepen nog steeds op het strand, anderhalve maand nadat ze Ceuta waren binnengekomen.

Volgens El País verliepen de eerste overplaatsingen gespannen. De migranten worden in kleine groepjes naar de nieuwe faciliteit gebracht, maar er waren veel meer mensen naar de verzamelplek gekomen. Zij verdrongen zich bij de politie, die in de lucht heeft geschoten als waarschuwing. Inmiddels zou de situatie weer onder controle zijn.

In het nieuwe opvangcentrum zijn 1700 slaapplekken. Het is niet duidelijk hoeveel mensen nog op het strand sliepen, maar RTVE noemt een schatting van 3000.

Er waren in Ceuta al meer tijdelijke faciliteiten ingericht na de aankomst van duizenden migranten, maar dat was nog niet genoeg om iedereen op te vangen.


Frans OM onderzoekt seksuele intimidatie met slimme bril

PARIJS (ANP/RTR) - Openbaar aanklagers in Parijs hebben een onderzoek geopend naar mogelijke seksuele intimidatie waarbij slimme brillen een rol speelden. Het gaat om klachten rondom een trend op sociale media waarbij vrouwen op straat zonder hun toestemming worden gefilmd met camerabrillen, meldt het Franse OM aan persbureau Reuters.

Details over het merk brillen geeft justitie in Frankrijk niet. Er zijn meerdere zogeheten smartglasses op de markt, maar sinds de opkomst van de brillen van socialemediaconcern Meta nemen ook zorgen over de privacy toe. De brillen die het Amerikaanse techbedrijf met EssilorLuxottica maakt, zijn goed voor ongeveer driekwart van alle verkochte slimme brillen.

De Franse privacywaakhond CNIL heeft klachten ontvangen over slimme brillen op de werkvloer, maar dat waren er tot dusver minder dan tien. De toezichthouder krijgt daarnaast steeds meer vragen van bedrijven die willen weten of ze de brillen kunnen verbieden op het werk.

Meta zegt privacymaatregelen te hebben genomen voor de brillen en stelt die verder te ontwikkelen.


Seksuele intimidatie met slimme bril in Franky

Openbaar aanklagers in Parijs hebben een onderzoek geopend naar mogelijke seksuele intimidatie waarbij slimme brillen een rol speelden. Het gaat om klachten rondom een trend op sociale media waarbij vrouwen op straat zonder hun toestemming worden gefilmd met camerabrillen, meldt het Franse OM aan persbureau Reuters.

Details over het merk brillen geeft justitie in Frankrijk niet. Er zijn meerdere zogeheten smartglasses op de markt, maar sinds de opkomst van de brillen van socialemediaconcern Meta nemen ook zorgen over de privacy toe. De brillen die het Amerikaanse techbedrijf met EssilorLuxottica maakt, zijn goed voor ongeveer driekwart van alle verkochte slimme brillen.

De Franse privacywaakhond CNIL heeft klachten ontvangen over slimme brillen op de werkvloer, maar dat waren er tot dusver minder dan tien. De toezichthouder krijgt daarnaast steeds meer vragen van bedrijven die willen weten of ze de brillen kunnen verbieden op het werk.

Meta zegt privacymaatregelen te hebben genomen voor de brillen en stelt die verder te ontwikkelen.


Narai-juku

japanimfokus has added a photo to the pool:

Narai-juku

tulip garden

hiroki.sato has added a photo to the pool:

tulip garden

Nigeria: ten minste 37 mensen overleden in een detentiecentrum

In Nigeria zouden sinds dinsdag of woensdag de mannen in hechtenis zijn genomen door een militaire politie-eenheid.

The Guardian

Latest news, sport, business, comment, analysis and reviews from the Guardian, the world's leading liberal voice

Could AI really end humanity? Post your questions for our tech reporters now

After a week of alarming warnings about the technology’s potential to destroy the world as we know it, our expert tech reporters will take your questions on the reality of the AI threat. Join us at 3pm BST (4pm CEST, 10am EDT) where they will answer live

Sign up or sign in to ask your question

The last week or so has seen disturbing claims about the capacity of superintelligent AI to destroy the planet. It has also seen warnings coming from figures within the industry itself, including Anthropic’s report that criminals, state-sponsored groups, spyware vendors, scientists and propagandists have attempted to use its models to “design missiles and bombs, create deadly pathogens and surveil dissidents” and Elon Musk’s claim it could be “more dangerous than nukes”.

Our reporting team has been trying to make sense of the scale of these claims. Is the great AI freakout justified? They will be here from 3pm BST (4pm CEST, 10am EDT) to try and answer any questions you might have.

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Chess: Nigel Short to play at south pole in event criticised over climate impact

The former world title challenger, 61, will take on representatives from five other continents in a tournament rated by the global chess body Fide

Nigel Short, the 1993 world title challenger, will head to the Antarctic for his next tournament as the 61-year-old, formerly of Bolton but resident for many decades in Greece, attempts to become the first chess player to win tournaments on seven continents.

There is history for the very strongest grandmasters successfully defying the ravages of time: Emanuel Lasker in his mid-60s at Moscow 1935 and 1936, Viktor Korchnoi in his seventies, and, most impressive of all, Vasily Smyslov reaching the 1984 Candidates final against Garry Kasparov at 63.

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‘I toured with a hole in my brain. I don’t regret a thing’: punk duo Lambrini Girls on fighting extreme times with extreme measures

Their debut stormed the charts and wowed Iggy Pop, but health crises threatened to derail the Brighton duo. Now they’re back, taking aim at the manosphere, fascism and the ruling class

At a last-minute surprise show in London, the British punk duo Lambrini Girls are sharing their stage with a continuous tide of crowd surfers. They move almost as one, a jumble of limbs rippling over a sea of bodies – emboldened, perhaps, by the band’s vow to double up as security guards. “If you don’t feel safe, tell us and we’ll punch them in the dick!” shouts Phoebe Lunny, the lead vocalist and guitarist.

She also requests that people pick up anyone who falls over in the moshpit and goes around with the mic asking fans to introduce themselves if they are “queer legends” (there are many). “This show is as much yours as it is ours,” Lunny announces, before she and the bassist Selin Macieira-Boşgelmez pummel everyone with shouty rants, furious beats and sludgy grunge.

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Todd Boehly exits Chelsea diminished after having his fingers burned

The billionaire’s departure will change little day-to-day but could be significant for club’s stadium plans

Not since a doomed foray into the thorny world of the transfer market has Todd Boehly had any real influence over the day-to-day at Chelsea. The American exits football as a diminished figure four years on, along with his fellow investor Mark Walter, and the first thing to say is that little will change in the Stamford Bridge boardroom just because Boehly has left the scene.

Clearlake Capital, the US private equity firm founded by Behdad Eghbali and José E Feliciano, was already the majority owner and guiding force. The trio of Boehly, Walter and the Swiss billionaire Hansjörg Wyss had an equal share of a 38.5% stake but have drifted into irrelevance since the BlueCo consortium bought Chelsea from Roman Abramovich for £2.5bn in 2022.

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Sydney Sweeney’s cartoonish provocation has sparked a culture war but let’s just admit sport can be sexy | Emma John

Yes sport is about effort, sweat and inclusivity – but it also turns elite athletes into magnificent specimens of humanity where the aesthetic is part of the appeal

Have you seen the 40-second video that will change the way you think about women’s sport, women’s bodies, just, you know, women? It’s been unavoidable on social media this week – brazen, unapologetic, dominating the algorithm like an AI kitten hacking a banana-bread recipe while lip-syncing to Cardi B. I for one have enjoyed it at least 50 times already.

It starts with some carefully curated passive-aggression – “Dear Sydney”, “Hey Sydney”, “Respectfully Sydney” – and follows up with clips of what, in its own words, “a woman in sport actually looks like”. It shows its subject pounding the treadmill or powering down the back straight, flooring a rival with a tackle or a roundhouse kick, lifting weights or throwing herself through the air. It is, inevitably, soundtracked by Dua Lipa. Training Season is getting a serious bump this week.

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Slowly then all at once: this emboldened Celtic alliance could spell the end of the UK | Simon Jenkins

It’s something akin to a quiet earthquake: home nations jointly declaring their wish to be freed from English domination. A big move needs a big response

Monday must have been a historical first. Never before have three of the four “nations” of the United Kingdom jointly demanded freedom to vote for its dissolution. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have lost confidence in England. They declared in Cardiff that the unionist government at Westminster is “coming to an end”.

There was no such Celtic alliance against the Normans, Edward I or Cromwell. Celtic MPs have never formed a voting coalition in parliament. The Victorian Liberal party advanced “home rule for all”, but that was not independence and it got nowhere. Ireland rebelled, but it did so alone. When this eventually succeeded, Britain said good riddance, kept hold of Belfast and continued to centralise power in London.

Simon Jenkins is a Guardian columnist

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Sports quiz of the week: records, hazards, complaints and boring events

Have you followed the big stories in football, cricket, motor racing, tennis, cycling, golf, athletics and American football?

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Week in wildlife: swimming pigs, circling sharks and a fox on the cricket pitch

This week’s best wildlife photographs from around the world

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