De Brent-olieprijs schoot deze week door naar ruim $123 per vat het hoogste niveau sinds juni 2022. Tegelijk draait de AEX rond de psychologische grens van 1.000 punten, kruipt de gasrekening verder omhoog en daalt de gemiddelde dekkingsgraad van onze pensioenfondsen weer. Voor wie zelf belegt, voelt het alsof er overal tegelijk iets wankelt. Toch is het belangrijkste advies van professionele vermogensbeheerders verrassend nuchter: doe niets impulsiefs.
Het economische tumult raakt Nederland op meerdere fronten tegelijk:
- De AEX worstelt met de grens van 1000 punten. Een doorbraak naar boven het all time high rond 1.030 is nodig om het risico van een dubbele top af te wenden. Bovendien: een wereldwijde recessie is niet ui te sluiten.
- De pensioenfondsen zagen hun gemiddelde dekkingsgraad in maart dalen naar 123% door een combinatie van vermogensverlies en bredere marktstress; aandelenmarkten zijn wereldwijd meer dan 7% gedaald sinds het begin van het conflict.
- De energierekening explodeerde: de gemiddelde maandnota voor een huishouden steeg naar circa €177, ruim 28% hoger. Nederland heeft inmiddels de hoogste gasprijs van alle grote Europese landen, bijna 75% boven het Europese gemiddelde.
- De pomp voelt het ook: ING rekende eerder voor dat bij Brent rond $100 een gemiddelde benzineprijs van circa €2,40 mogelijk is, en bij $140 zelfs richting €2,80.
Wat te doen?
1. Niet handelen op emotie
De grootste fout in dit soort weken is de paniekverkoop. Pieken en dalen voorspellen is zelfs voor profs lastig — als particulier is het vrijwel onmogelijk. Wie nu in paniek verkoopt, mist meestal het herstel dat na geopolitieke schokken historisch vaak binnen enkele maanden volgt.
2. Pas op met "instappen in olie"
3. Spreid en houd je horizon lang
Klassiek, maar in onzekere tijden bewezen effectief:
4. Inflatiebescherming inbouwen
Met olie boven $ 100 stijgt de kans op hardnekkigere inflatie en hogere rentes opnieuw.
5. Vergeet je eigen huishouden niet
Beleggen begint thuis. Met de gasrekening die richting € 177 per maand kruipt en benzine die mogelijk richting € 2,80 gaat, is het rendement op verstandig huishoudboekhouden vaak hoger dan op de beurs:
- Check of je energiecontract nog marktconform is — in april 2026 lag de gemiddelde gasprijs op 65 cent en stroomprijs op 12 cent.
- Heb je schulden met variabele rente? Aflossen levert nu vaak meer op dan extra beleggen.
De geopolitieke premie in de olieprijs kan net zo snel verdwijnen als hij is gekomen. De geschiedenis laat zien dat markten meestal sneller herstellen dan de krantenkoppen doen vermoeden. Voor de gewone belegger in Nederland is de verstandigste zet meestal niets spectaculairs: vasthouden aan een gespreide portefeuille, bijkopen volgens plan, cashbuffer op orde, energierekening kritisch bekijken — en vooral niet achter de olieprijs aanrennen.
Saai? Misschien. Maar saai blijkt in dit soort weken vaak het meest winstgevend.
Warlock Static has added a photo to the pool:
✶⋆.˚ɢʀᴀᴀʟ - ʟᴜɪꜱ ᴏᴜᴛꜰɪᴛ ꜰᴀᴛᴘᴀᴄᴋ
✶⋆.˚[ʟᴜɪꜱ ᴏᴜᴛꜰɪᴛ]
✶⋆.˚ᴀᴠᴀɪʟᴀʙʟᴇ ᴀᴛ ᴍᴀɴʜᴏᴏᴅ ᴇᴠᴇɴᴛ
- ꜱᴏʟᴅ ᴀꜱ ʟɪᴛᴇᴘᴀᴄᴋ ᴏʀ ꜰᴀᴛᴘᴀᴄᴋ
- ʟɪᴛᴇᴘᴀᴄᴋ ᴄᴏᴍᴇꜱ ᴡɪᴛʜ ʙʟᴀᴄᴋ ᴀɴᴅ ᴡʜɪᴛᴇ ᴄᴏʟᴏʀ
- ᴍᴀᴛᴇʀɪᴀʟꜱ ᴇɴᴀʙʟᴇᴅ
- ꜰɪᴛᴛᴇᴅ ꜰᴏʀ ʟᴇɢᴀᴄʏ ᴍ
- ᴍᴏᴅɪꜰʏ ᴘᴇʀᴍɪꜱꜱɪᴏɴꜱ ᴏɴʟʏ ɪɴ ꜰᴀᴛᴘᴀᴄᴋ
- ᴄᴏᴍᴘᴀᴛɪʙʟᴇ ᴡɪᴛʜ ᴏ'ᴄᴏɴɴᴇʟ ʙᴏᴏᴛꜱ
✶⋆.˚ᴛᴀxɪ maps.secondlife.com/secondlife/Manhood/49/128/800
There is cautious optimism that ‘a majority of multilateralists’ may be able to enduringly reshape the world order
Antonio de Aguiar Patriota, Brazil’s ambassador to London, had no difficulty joining the dystopians describing the modern world in a recent speech, a world suffering from “global warming and environmental degradation, multiple conflicts, rising military budgets, disregard for international law and international humanitarian law, disruptions to trade, erosion of democratic governance and technological developments that are met with excitement and fear”.
Yet beneath the surface, he said, “something is happening. Something is moving.”
Continue reading...Ukraine war briefing: Russian oil hub of Tuapse hit for fourth time as environmental disaster mounts
Ukrainian drone attacks on refinery in Black Sea port cause toxic clouds and oil slicks on resort’s coastline; Kyiv to reform army. What we know on day 1,529
Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s Black Sea port of Tuapse on Friday for the fourth time in 16 days as authorities struggled to cope with a growing environmental disaster from toxic black smoke clouds and oil leaking into the sea. Ukraine’s SBU security service said drones had again struck the seaport and refinery that make Tuapse an important hub for Russian oil exports. Local Russian officials said a major operation was under way to put out a fire at the port but no casualties were reported. The refinery has been hit and set ablaze at least twice since 16 April, halting production, in attacks that have thrown up dense black clouds over the town and caused oil slicks along the coastline, ruining the beaches of the popular resort.
Russian authorities had so far cleared more than 13,300 cubic metres of fuel oil and contaminated soil along the coast, they said on Friday. State TV showed a reporter standing on a blackened beach and using a spade to show how deep the oozing filth had seeped.
Russia launched almost 410 drones at Ukraine in a daytime attack that including injuring 10 people in the western city of Ternopil, Ukrainian officials said on Friday. Air force units downed or neutralised 388 of them in the north, south, centre and west of the country, Ukraine’s air force said. In Ternopil, about 150-200km from the Polish border, 10 people were hurt in the attack, which hit industrial and infrastructure facilities, the city’s mayor said.
In central Ukraine, 19 drones were downed over the Cherkasy region, the regional governor said, reporting damage to a nursery, a school, seven private houses and a power line. A woman was hurt in the central Vinnytsia region, the local governor said, adding that a building was destroyed. Near the southern city of Odesa, which had come under the overnight attack, another daytime attack damaged the roof of a shopping centre and caused a fire, the regional governor said, while Zelenskyy said at least five people were wounded in the region.
Ukraine has announced plans to carry out reforms of the army this summer to address problems with infantry shortages and the discharge of the longest-serving soldiers, four years into the war with Russia. Manpower shortages have become an even more pressing issue as enthusiasm for service has waned amid reports of poor training and support, as well as heavy-handed draft officers. “Now, in May, all key details will be finalised,” Zelenskyy said on Telegram on Friday. “In June, the reform will begin – and the first results must already be delivered in June.” He promised higher pay for the infantry, saying: “A Ukrainian infantryman who holds the front line must feel that our state truly respects him.” Ukraine had to be ready to fight on if a peace deal could not be reached, Zelenskyy said. Mykhailo Fedorov, who was named defence minister in January, said the changes announced amounted to a “systemic” transformation of the army.
Public prosecutors in Peru said they were investigating an alleged trafficking network offering fake jobs in Russia to Peruvians before forcing them to fight in Moscow’s war on Ukraine. Individuals including former military personnel and police officers were allegedly recruited through social media with deceptive offers of well-paid work as security agents and other jobs in Russia, the attorney general’s office said. According to information provided to the police, “victims were reportedly taken to Russia and, once on foreign soil, forced to take part in combat operations in the context of the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine”, it said. Thirteen Peruvians had died in the Ukraine war, a lawyer for the victims’ families told local media.
Continue reading...
Tasmanian.Kris has added a photo to the pool:
A little seahorse drifting among weed like it’s perfectly normal to look that strange. Evolution clearly had a sense of humour when designing these things. Curled tail, horse head, upright posture. The ocean produces some very confident oddities.
