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De boodschappen zullen aan het einde van het jaar een stuk duurder zijn, denkt de Rabobank.

Aan het einde van dit jaar wordt de kassabon in de Nederlandse supermarkt opnieuw een pijnlijke reality check, waarschuwt Rabobank in een vrijdag verschenen rapport. De bank rekent erop dat boodschappen rond kerst zo’n 7 procent duurder zijn dan aan het begin van 2026, mede op basis van berekeningen die eerder via de NOS naar buiten kwamen. Terwijl de totale inflatie in april officieel ‘maar’ 2,8 procent bedroeg, lagen de energieprijzen – inclusief motorbrandstoffen – al 7,8 procent hoger dan een jaar eerder, meldde het CBS.

Aan de basis ligt de oorlog in Iran, begonnen na militaire acties van de Verenigde Staten en Israël eind februari. Sindsdien is de scheepvaart door de Straat van Hormuz zwaar ontregeld, waardoor olieprijzen en daarmee benzine en diesel de lucht in zijn geschoten; de landelijke adviesprijs voor een liter benzine tikte recent voor het eerst de 2,60 euro aan. Rabobank-econoom Cyrille Filott vat het droog samen: “Hier’s the thing: producing food requires a lot of energy… By the time all those prices have been raised at every step, it will be Christmas.”

Die hogere energieprijzen sijpelen in slow motion de hele voedselketen in. ING waarschuwde deze week al dat veel bedrijven in de voedselindustrie hun oude vaste energiecontracten binnenkort moeten vernieuwen, tegen fors hogere tarieven. Duurder gas voor ovens en fabrieken, duurder diesel voor transport, duurdere olie voor plastic verpakkingen: elke schakel legt een paar cent extra bovenop de prijs, tot die onschuldig ogende pot pindakaas ineens geen makkelijke meepakker meer is.

Voor Nederlandse huishoudens betekent dit dat de ‘nieuwe normaliteit’ in de supermarkt nog lang niet in zicht is. Vooral lagere en middeninkomens, die een groot deel van hun budget kwijt zijn aan voedsel en energie, hebben weinig buffer meer om nog een prijsronde op te vangen. De vraag is minder of de kerstboodschappen onbetaalbaar worden, dan hoeveel politieke druk nodig is voordat Den Haag die dure kassabon echt als probleem gaat behandelen.


The Guardian

Latest news, sport, business, comment, analysis and reviews from the Guardian, the world's leading liberal voice

‘Living library’: inside the marine biobanks racing to protect ocean species from extinction

Australia’s biobanks store everything from seeds of native plants to the cells and tissue of threatened animal species

In the mudflats of Swan Bay, Victoria, royal spoonbills sweep their paddle-shaped bills through shallow water. Nearby, under the grass-covered roof of the Queenscliff marine research centre, a team of scientists from Deakin University are trying to bring the ecosystems those birds and many others rely on back from the brink.

Some of that involves associate professor Prue Francis’s beakers – filled with bubbling brown gunk – that are bathed in red light inside a fridge equipped with sensors, alarms and a backup generator.

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Thousands of cancer patients in England to benefit from new immunotherapy jab

Injectable pembrolizumab can treat several types of cancer and can be administered in under two minutes

Thousands of patients across England each year will benefit from a new immunotherapy treatment that can be used for several types of cancer, the NHS has announced.

The injectable form of pembrolizumab, which can be administered in under two minutes, kills cancer cells by blocking a protein called PD-1, which acts as a brake on immune responses, allowing the immune system to recognise and attack cancer cells.

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EU forging closer ties with Armenia as it sends experts to help counter Russian interference

Bloc’s leaders to hold first summit with Armenia on Tuesday at it ramps up efforts to combat Kremlin’s influence

The EU is sending a team of experts specialised in combating Russian propaganda and interference to Armenia, as it increases its support to the former Soviet republic in a tense political period.

In a highly symbolic sequence of events, EU leaders will hold their first summit with Armenia on Tuesday, after a pan-European gathering of about 45 leaders at the European Political Community summit in Yerevan.

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49 ways to have fun right now! Skydive in a wind tunnel, count dogs and run like a three-year-old

The world often feels dominated by sadness and doomscrolling. But fun is still possible – and necessary. Here are tried and tested ways to enjoy yourself

Cartwheel. On the day we scattered my father’s ashes, we lightened the mood with some competitive gymnastics. I don’t know how it started, but in attempting a cartwheel, I was shocked at my own creeping decrepitude. Over the last year, I’ve been watching online tutorials and practising – and I can do a passable cartwheel now. For that joyful split-second, upside down and wheeling, I’m reconnected with my eight-year-old self. Emine Saner

Have a kitchen disco. Never underestimate the fun ready to burst out of your kitchen. The crucial ingredient? Good music, played loudly. Parcels are my new favourite – the whole family have become superfans since last summer’s awesome Glastonbury set. Tieduprightnow, Gamesofluck, IknowhowIfeel, Hideout, Safeandsound – so many danceable, joyful tracks. Patrick Barkham

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The centre left is not dead. A progressive new counter-Trumpian movement is on the way

Social democrats are at last facing up to the failures of globalisation to create equality or deliver for workers

If Donald Trump represents the backlash against the liberalrules-based order, then we may now be seeing the backlash to the backlash. In a recent speech, the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, spoke of just that. “They scream and shout not because they are winning, but because they know their time is running out,” he said, of those seeking to undermine international law and normalise the use of force. While the Trump administration and its allies seek to remake the world in their view, alternative visions of the international order are finally beginning to take shape.

The Canadian prime minister Mark Carney, in his now famous Davos speech in January, laid bare the vulnerabilities of what he described as a world in “rupture”. Middle powers must act together, he argued, because “if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu”. The way forward is not to abandon globalisation altogether but to remake it: preserving openness while upholding a rules-based order and avoiding over-reliance on a single country.

Florian Ranft is a member of the management board at Das Progressive Zentrum, a thinktank based in Berlin

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‘Voting Green will stop Reform’: party eyes kingmaker role in Wales

With Plaid Cymru set to end Labour dominance, activists say the Greens could hold the balance of power in the next Senedd

The church hall in Cardiff’s Canton neighbourhood was packed with Green party supporters who had spent Saturday canvassing ahead of next week’s crucial Senedd elections. Green party members from Northern Ireland, Sweden and Denmark had all joined the local campaigners, adding to the sense of momentum for the Welsh Greens.

After waiting for more than an hour, the crowd cheered when Zack Polanski, leader of the Green party of England and Wales, appeared from behind the nave, hugging the Wales leader Anthony Slaughter as he did so.

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Next stop – infinity! My transcendental experience on Japan’s ‘art island’ guided by its master Lee Ufan

Is this the ultimate location for contemplative art? Our writer travels to the legendary island of Naoshima – and meets the great creator of its most spellbinding works. Will he step through the arch and find nirvana?

The island of Naoshima used to be heavily polluted and dominated by a Mitsubishi plant. Now, after being redeveloped by the billionaire Sōichirō Fukutake in 1989, it’s known as Japan’s “art island”. Boasting 3,000 inhabitants and rising up out of Seto Inland Sea, the island is studded with dim, concrete-walled galleries sunk into the hillsides. Designed by architect Tadao Andō, these have a contemplative, almost worshipful ambience and are filled with extraordinary paintings, sculptures and installations by artists ranging from Claude Monet to land artist Walter De Maria, although the real Instagram bait is the giant yellow-and-black spotted pumpkin deposited on a pier by Yayoi Kusama in 1994.

As all the retired American couples treating themselves to a trip of a lifetime would attest, Naoshima has become the ultimate destination for those seeking a transcendental visual experience. For many, this comes as they walk downhill to the coast and see a huge steel arch, 11m tall and 13m wide, pinned between two sand-coloured boulders. Underneath it is a long steel plate acting as a kind of runway, enticing visitors to walk through the arch towards the sea.

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‘It’s a world heritage site, but it’s my home’: the last resident of Casa Milà on life in Gaudí’s masterwork

Ana Viladomiu has been a ‘privileged’ resident of the once derided, now revered Barcelona apartment building for almost 40 years

Imagine that you live in an enormous, beautiful apartment designed by one of the world’s most admired architects in the most expensive street in Spain and for which you pay a derisory rent, with the right to live there until you die.

Meet the writer Ana Viladomiu, 70, the last tenant of Antoni Gaudí’s Casa Milà on the elegant Passeig de Gràcia in Barcelona. Viladomiu is in fact the last tenant in any of Gaudí’s buildings, unless you include the peregrine falcons that nest in the Sagrada Família.

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